Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/2/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 (EX-ARIEL) 2.A POSITION 2007/11/17 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.6S / 86.8E (ELEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 220 SO: 200 NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 650 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/11/18 06 UTC: 11.6S/86.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2007/11/18 18 UTC: 11.5S/85.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2007/11/19 06 UTC: 11.3S/84.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2007/11/19 18 UTC: 11.0S/83.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0- AND CI=2.5-. "EX ARIEL" REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY SHEARED WITH A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION EXPOSED OUTSIDE THE RESIDUAL FLUCTUATING CONVECTION WHICH MAINTAINS ITSELF IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTOR OF THE LOW CIRCULATION. THE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS VERY ASSYMETRICAL WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT ONLY EXISTING IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE MOSTLY BY GRADIENT EFFECT ON THE EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE ONGOING DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE CHAGOS ARCHIPELAGO SHOULD INHIBIT ANY ATTEMPT AT RE-DEVELOPMENT OF "EX ARIEL" WHICH SHOULD THEREFORE KEEP ON FILLING UP SLOWLY. THE SYSTEM WHICH HAS MOVED VERY SLOWLY WESTWARDS DURING THE PAST 24H MAY DISSIPATE AT MEDIUM RANGE WITHIN THE CIRCULATION DEVELOPING NEAR THE CHAGOS AS THE LATTER ONE SHIFTS SOUTHWARD AS EXPECTED.