Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 11/2/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 (EX-ARIEL) 2.A POSITION 2007/11/18 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.7S / 86.7E (ELEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 220 SO: 200 NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/11/18 12 UTC: 11.8S/86.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2007/11/19 00 UTC: 12.0S/85.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2007/11/19 12 UTC: 12.0S/85.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2007/11/20 00 UTC: 11.8S/84.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2007/11/20 12 UTC: 11.7S/83.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2007/11/21 00 UTC: 11.5S/82.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0- AND CI=2.5-. LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ACCURATELY DUE TO THE LACK OF RECENT FAIR SATELLITE DATA AND DUE TO NIGHTIME EVOLUTION INDUCING STRONG OUTBREAK OF HIGH CLOUDS AND LOCAL CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE SYSTEM OCCULTING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE BUOY 53947 LOCATED NOT FAR TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTRE HAS DISPLAYED SOME RECENT SLIGHT PRESSURE FALL WITH PRESSURE JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1000 HPA. THE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS VERY ASSYMETRICAL WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT ONLY EXISTING IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE MOSTLY BY GRADIENT EFFECT ON THE EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE ONGOING POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A NEW DISTURBANCE EAST OF THE CHAGOS ARCHIPELAGO (CURRENTLY AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED NEAR 6.7S/75.8E WITH ESTIMATED MSLP OF 1002 HPA DRIFTING SOUTHWARD) MAY INTERFERE WITH "EX ARIEL" AND INHIBIT ANY ATTEMPT AT RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THE LATTER. "EX ARIEL" WHICH SHOULD THEREFORE KEEP ON FILLING UP VERY SLOWLY.