Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/2/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 (EX-ARIEL) 2.A POSITION 2007/11/18 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.3S / 86.7E (TWELVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 220 SO: 200 NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/11/18 18 UTC: 12.8S/86.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2007/11/19 06 UTC: 13.2S/86.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2007/11/19 18 UTC: 13.4S/86.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2007/11/20 06 UTC: 13.5S/85.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2007/11/20 18 UTC: 13.5S/84.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2007/11/21 06 UTC: 13.3S/83.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0 AND CI=2.5-. THE CENTER HAS BEEN RELOCATED SOUTHWARDS ACCORDING TO LAST MICRO-WAVE DATA (SSMI AT 0128Z), SHOWING THAT THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARDS DURING THE NIGHT. THE FUTUR EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW DEPENDS ON THE ACTUAL DEEPENING OF THE ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER EAST OF CHAGOS ISLANDS. NWP MODELS FORCASTS ARE DIFFERENTS ONES FROM EACH OTHER.