Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 13/2/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 (EX-ARIEL) 2.A POSITION 2007/11/18 AT 1200 UTC : 12.8S / 87.4E (TWELVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 220 SO: 200 NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/11/19 00 UTC: 13.1S/87.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2007/11/19 12 UTC: 13.5S/87.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2007/11/20 00 UTC: 13.8S/87.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2007/11/20 12 UTC: 14.0S/87.1E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP. 60H: 2007/11/21 00 UTC: 14.1S/86.5E FILLING UP. 72H: 2007/11/21 12 UTC: 14.2S/85.6E FILLING UP. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0 AND CI=2.5-. EX-ARIEL SHOWS SIGNS OF WEAKENING (CONVECTION IS WEAKENING AND IS LESS ORGANIZED), AS THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE N3 IS DEEPENING EAST OF CHAGOS ISLANDS, 1350 KM WESTNOPRTHWEST OF IT. THE CENTER HAS CURVED SOUTHEASTWARDS, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH, WICH ESTABLISH THE STEERING FLOW OF THE TWO LOWS. IT SHOULD WEAKEN AND CURVE SOUTHWEST AS IT WILL APPROACH SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.