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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 14/2/20072008
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 (EX-ARIEL)

2.A POSITION 2007/11/18 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.5S / 87.8E
(TWELVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/11/19 06 UTC: 12.6S/88.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2007/11/19 18 UTC: 13.0S/88.5E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
36H: 2007/11/20 06 UTC: 13.4S/88.3E DISSIPATING.
48H: 2007/11/20 18 UTC: 13.8S/87.7E DISSIPATING.
60H: 2007/11/21 06 UTC: 13.9S/86.8E DISSIPATING.
72H: 2007/11/21 18 UTC: 13.9S/86.1E DISSIPATING.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
SYSTEM KEEPS ON WEAKENING AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE PROGRESSIVELY.
LAST WARNING RELATED TO THIS SYSTEM UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION BUT IT
REMAINS CLOSELY MONITORED (MARINE BULLETIN FQIO25 FMEE AND BULLETIN FOR
CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AWIO20 FMEE)