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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/3/20072008
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 3

2.A POSITION 2007/11/18 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.3S / 75.5E
(EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/11/19 00 UTC: 09.4S/76.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2007/11/19 12 UTC: 10.4S/76.4E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2007/11/20 00 UTC: 11.3S/75.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2007/11/20 12 UTC: 11.8S/74.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2007/11/21 00 UTC: 12.1S/73.3E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2007/11/21 12 UTC: 12.3S/72.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE N3 IS DEEPENING EAST OF CHAGOS ISLANDS, 1350 KM WESTNOPRTHWEST OF THE WEAKENING EX-ARIEL.
THE LLCC IS TRACKING SOUTHWARDS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST, WICH ESTABLISHES THE STEERING FLOW OF THE TWO LOWS. IT SHOULD CURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS AS IT WILL APPROACH SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION.