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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/3/20072008
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3

2.A POSITION 2007/11/18 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.8S / 76.3E
(EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 030

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/11/19 06 UTC: 10.3S/76.8E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
24H: 2007/11/19 18 UTC: 11.6S/77.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2007/11/20 06 UTC: 13.0S/76.5E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2007/11/20 18 UTC: 13.4S/75.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2007/11/21 06 UTC: 13.6S/73.9E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2007/11/21 18 UTC: 13.8S/72.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=2.5-
SYSTEM IS INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY AND THE LLCC IS TRACKING SOUTHWARDS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST, WICH ESTABLISHES THE STEERING FLOW OF THE TWO LOWS. IT SHOULD CURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS AS IT WILL APPROACH SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION.