Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/3/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3 2.A POSITION 2007/11/19 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.7S / 76.4E (NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 996 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 030 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/11/19 12 UTC: 11.7S/77.7E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/11/20 00 UTC: 13.5S/77.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/11/20 12 UTC: 14.5S/76.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/11/21 00 UTC: 14.9S/74.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/11/21 12 UTC: 15.0S/72.8E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/11/22 00 UTC: 15.1S/71.6E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=2.5 DISPITE THE 2047Z NOAA18 MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS A CURVE BAND FEATURE WRAPPING ON 6 TENS, ENHANCED INFRARED METEOSAT 7 IMAGERY REVEALS A CYCLIC DEEP CONVECTION WITH BURST OF ACTIVITY (THE LAST MAIN CLUSTER ONLY SUBSTITUTES THE PREVIOUS ONE SINCE 1800Z). HOWEVER, SYSTEM IS INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY AND THE LLCC IS TRACKING SOUTHWARDS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST, WICH ESTABLISHES THE STEERING FLOW OF THE TWO LOWS. IT SHOULD CURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS AS IT WILL APPROACH SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION.