Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/3/20072008 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONGWE) 2.A POSITION 2007/11/19 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.9S / 77.2E (NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 994 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 37 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 050 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/11/19 18 UTC: 10.9S/77.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/11/20 06 UTC: 11.9S/76.0E, MAX WIND=045KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/11/20 18 UTC: 12.5S/74.7E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/11/21 06 UTC: 13.0S/73.1E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2007/11/21 18 UTC: 13.1S/71.5E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2007/11/22 06 UTC: 13.2S/70.0E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: "T AND CI=3.0- GALE WINDS ARE GENERATED BY THIS SYSTEM SO IT HAS BEEN NAMED "BONGWE" AT 06 TU BY THE MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE. CENTER POSITION HAS BEEN RELOCATED EASTWARDS WITH MICROWAVE DATA FROM 0230Z. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN ADJUSTED EQUATORWARDS BUT PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED. "BONGWE" SHOULD TRACK GLOBALLY SOUTHWARDS THEN IT IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS AT DAY 1 THEN WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS AT DAY 2. THIS SYSTEM EXIST IN AN ENVIRONMENT QUITE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. "BONGWE" SHOULD BE AT TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGH BY H+60.