Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/3/20072008 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONGWE) 2.A POSITION 2007/11/19 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.4S / 76.8E (TEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 987 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 050 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 050 50 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/11/20 00 UTC: 10.9S/75.8E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/11/20 12 UTC: 11.4S/74.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2007/11/21 00 UTC: 11.9S/73.5E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2007/11/21 12 UTC: 12.4S/71.8E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2007/11/22 00 UTC: 12.6S/70.5E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2007/11/22 12 UTC: 12.6S/69.0E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=3.5 SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF "BONGWE" SUPPORT CI OF 3.5, SO INTENSITY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STATUS WITH WINDS AT 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. LATEST FIX SUGGEST THAT THE SOUTWESTWARDS TURN HAS BEGUN SUGGESTING THAT "BONGWE" IS PROGRESSIVELY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SLIGHTY ADJUSTED EQUATORWARDS FOLLOWING CLOSELY THE ECMWF AND EPS TRACKS. THIS SYSTEM EXIST IN AN ENVIRONMENT QUITE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. GIVEN THE ACTUAL TREND, INTENSITY FORCAST IS ON A LITTLE FASTER RATE ... AND BRINGS "BONGWE" TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS TOMORROW. AT THE END OF THE FORCAST PERIOD, SOME GLOBAL MODELS (AS UK) SUGGEST THAT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE AND SHOULD WEAKEN THE SYSTEM . FOR THIS ADVISORY, IT IS NOT REFLECTED YET ... BUT MAYBE IT WILL BE LATER WITH THE NEXT NWP RUN OF 12Z