Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/3/20072008 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONGWE) 2.A POSITION 2007/11/19 AT 1800 UTC : 11.0S / 76.6E (ELEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.5 MOINS /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 987 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 060 50 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/11/20 06 UTC: 11.8S/75.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/11/20 18 UTC: 12.4S/74.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/11/21 06 UTC: 13.0S/73.0E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2007/11/21 18 UTC: 13.4S/71.6E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2007/11/22 06 UTC: 13.7S/70.3E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2007/11/22 18 UTC: 13.7S/68.8E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.0+ AND CI=3.5 LAST MICRO-WAVE IMAGERIES (SSMIS AT 1514Z AND SSMI AT 1345Z) HAS FIXED THE LOCATION OIF THE LLCC, AND SHOWN A LIGHT SOUTHEASTWARDS VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, WHICH PUSHES DEEP CONVECTION NORTHWESTWARDS AND TEMPORARILLY STOP THE INTENSIFICATION. NEVERTHELESS BONGWE REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT RATHER FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION, AND SHOULD REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK IS CONFIRMED. "BONGWE" IS NOW UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH STEERES IT GLOBALLY WESTARDS. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SLIGHTY ADJUSTED CLOSELY ECMWF AND EPS'S TRACKS. THIS SCENARIO IS ADOPTED BY MOST OF THE NWP MODELS.