Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/3/20072008 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONGWE) 2.A POSITION 2007/11/20 AT 0000 UTC : 10.9S / 75.9E (TEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 MOINS /D 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 100 50 KT NE: 035 SE: 035 SO: 035 NO: 035 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/11/20 12 UTC: 11.5S/74.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/11/21 00 UTC: 12.1S/72.8E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2007/11/21 12 UTC: 12.6S/71.3E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2007/11/22 00 UTC: 13.1S/70.2E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2007/11/22 12 UTC: 13.4S/69.0E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2007/11/23 00 UTC: 13.5S/67.9E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=4.0- AND CI=4.0- THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER IS ESTIMATED WITH A RATHER GOOD CONFIDENT ACCORDING TO LAST MICRO-WAVE IMAGERIES (MAINLY IMAGE OF AQUA AT 2025Z IN THE 37CHZ/V CHANNEL WHICH SHOWS A SMALL LOW LEVEL EYE IN THE HEAD OF THE CURVED BAND AND AN IMROVING ORGANIZATION). THE CENTER HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY RELOCATED TO THE NW COMPARED TO THE LOCATION INDICATED AT 1800Z. "BONGWE" HAS TRACKED WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH STEERES IT GLOBALLY WESTARDS. IN AN ENVIRONMENT RATHER FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION, BONGWE SHOULD REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN ADJUSTED CLOSELY TO ECMWF AND EPS'S TRACKS.