Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 11/3/20072008 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONGWE) 2.A POSITION 2007/11/21 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.1S / 72.3E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/3.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 992 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 090 SE: 150 SO: 180 NO: 130 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 650 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/11/21 12 UTC: 13.9S/70.5E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/11/22 00 UTC: 14.3S/69.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/11/22 12 UTC: 14.5S/68.0E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/11/23 00 UTC: 14.4S/67.0E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/11/23 12 UTC: 14.2S/66.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/11/24 00 UTC: 13.9S/65.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5 AND CI=3.0. EVEN THOUGH CONVECTION HAS REBUILT NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE DURING THE PAST HOURS THE WEAKENING TREND OF"BONGWE" HAS NOT YET BEEN HALTED AT THIS STAGE WITH THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATING THE EXISTENCE OF A LOW LEVEL VORTEX EXPOSED ON THE EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. AFTER THE SEVERE DECAY UNDERGONE BY THE STORM YESTERDAY DUE TO THE INTRUSION OF DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE INNER CORE OF THE STORM FROM THE WEST OF ITS CIRCULATION THE POTENTIAL FOR A REJUVENATION OF THE METEOR REMAINS AN OPENED QUESTION. A MARGINAL RE-INTENSIFICATION REMAINS POSSIBLE BUT IS NOT GUARANTEED DESPITE RATHER FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS (IN TERMS OF UPPER DIVERGENCE AND VERTICAL WINDSHEAR) BEFORE AN EXPECTED INCREASE OF THE SHEAR FROM THE WEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO BEND MORE WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEYOND 24H RANGE.