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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47


RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/3/20072008
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONGWE)

2.A POSITION 2007/11/21 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.9S / 71.9E
(TWELVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 090 SE: 150 SO: 180 NO: 130

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/11/21 18 UTC: 13.3S/70.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
24H: 2007/11/22 06 UTC: 13.5S/69.4E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2007/11/22 18 UTC: 13.3S/68.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2007/11/23 06 UTC: 13.1S/67.5E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2007/11/23 18 UTC: 12.9S/67.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2007/11/24 06 UTC: 12.6S/66.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=3.0 AND CI=3.0
"BONGWE" SEEMS TO BEGIN A NEW PHASIS OF INTENSIFICATION WITH A BETTER FEATURE ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY.
A DOUBT EXISTS FOR THE TRMM 0145UTC LOW LEVEL VORTEX CENTER LOCATED TOO NORTH WICH POSITION IS NOT COHERENT WITH THE 2028UTC NOAA18 AND THE 0224UTC SSMI/F15 ONES.
LAST METEOSAT7 ANIMATIONS CONFIRM A TRACK KEEPING ON TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS.
SYSTEM IS TAKING BENEFITS ON GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL AND ENERGETICS CONDITIONS AGAIN.
IT SHOULD REACHING AGAIN SEVERE TROPICAL STROM STAGE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND THEN WEAKENING BACK UNDERGOING AN UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS CONSTRAINT.
LINK TO MID-LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL HIGHS NEAR SEYCHELLES ISLANDS , BONGWE IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE PORGRESSIVELY MORE WESTWARDS AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS SLOWING DONW.