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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 13/3/20072008
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONGWE)

2.A POSITION 2007/11/21 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.5S / 71.1E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 080 SE: 110 SO: 160 NO: 130

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/11/22 00 UTC: 13.9S/69.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
24H: 2007/11/22 12 UTC: 14.1S/68.3E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2007/11/23 00 UTC: 13.8S/67.2E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2007/11/23 12 UTC: 13.4S/65.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2007/11/24 00 UTC: 13.1S/64.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2007/11/24 12 UTC: 13.0S/63.9E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=3.5- AND CI=3.5-
"BONGWE" INTENSIFIES GRADUALLY ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK.
SYSTEM IS TAKING BENEFITS ON GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL AND ENERGETICS CONDITIONS AGAIN.
IT SHOULD REACHING AGAIN SEVERE TROPICAL STROM STAGE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND THEN WEAKENING BACK CONSTRAINTED BY UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS.
UNDERGOING MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGHS NEAR SEYCHELLES ISLANDS , BONGWE IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE PORGRESSIVELY MORE WESTWARDS AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS SLOWING DONW.