Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 14/3/20072008 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONGWE) 2.A POSITION 2007/11/21 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.7S / 70.2E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 MOINS /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 987 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 070 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/11/22 06 UTC: 14.0S/68.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/11/22 18 UTC: 13.8S/67.5E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/11/23 06 UTC: 13.6S/66.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/11/23 18 UTC: 13.4S/65.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/11/24 06 UTC: 13.1S/64.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/11/24 18 UTC: 13.1S/63.5E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.5- AND CI=3.5- "BONGWE" IS A VERY SMALL SYSTEM WHICH TRACKS WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS REGULARY, BUT WHICH SHOULD CURVE WESTNORTHWESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, DUE TO THE BUILDING HIGH LOCATED BETWEEN MADAGASCARD AND SEYCHELLES ISLANDS. IT SHOULD SLOW DOWN AT MEDIUM RANGE. NO REAL TENDENCY CAN BE EVIDENCED FOR ITS INTENSITY. CONDITIONS ARE GLOBALLY NEUTRAL. LOWLEVEL EQUATORWARD INFLOW (MONSOON) IS POOR, AND THE TRADE WINDS INFLOW IS LESS WARM AND HUMID, WHAT CAN EXPLAIN A LACK OF ENERGY FOR A MORE IMPORTANT INTENSIFICATION. THE LIGHT TILT THAT EXISTED BETWEEN THE LLCC AND MID-LEVEL DOESN'T EXIST ANYMORE, AND THE LLCC AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION ARE NOW MORE IN PHASIS (CF SSMI AT 1459Z).