Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 15/3/20072008 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONGWE) 2.A POSITION 2007/11/22 AT 0000 UTC : 13.9S / 69.8E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 MOINS /D 0.5/18 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 984 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 070 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/11/22 12 UTC: 14.3S/68.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/11/23 00 UTC: 14.3S/67.3E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/11/23 12 UTC: 14.0S/66.7E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/11/24 00 UTC: 13.9S/66.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/11/24 12 UTC: 13.8S/65.7E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/11/25 00 UTC: 13.8S/65.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.5 AND CI=3.5 "BONGWE" IS A SMALL SYSTEM WHICH HAS LIGHTLY INTENSIFIED DURING LAST HOURS. IT SHOULD CURVE WESTNORTHWESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, DUE TO THE BUILDING HIGH LOCATED BETWEEN MADAGASCARD AND SEYCHELLES ISLANDS, THEN SLOW DOWN. SOME NWP MODELS START TO FORECAST A RECURVATURE TO THE SOUTHWEST AT MEDIUM RANGE (NEAR THE 25), AND A MODERATE WESTWARDS VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. NO REAL TENDENCY CAN BE EVIDENCED FOR ITS INTENSITY. CONDITIONS ARE GLOBALLY NEUTRAL. LOWLEVEL EQUATORWARD INFLOW (MONSOON) IS POOR, AND THE TRADE WINDS INFLOW IS LESS WARM AND HUMID, WHAT CAN EXPLAIN A LACK OF ENERGY FOR A MORE IMPORTANT INTENSIFICATION.