Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 16/3/20072008 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONGWE) 2.A POSITION 2007/11/22 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.0S / 70.0E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 976 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 070 SE: 170 SO: 170 NO: 070 50 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/11/22 18 UTC: 14.1S/69.3E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2007/11/23 06 UTC: 14.2S/68.6E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2007/11/23 18 UTC: 14.3S/67.8E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/11/24 06 UTC: 14.4S/66.8E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/11/24 18 UTC: 14.6S/65.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/11/25 06 UTC: 15.0S/65.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=4.0 AND CI=4.0 "BONGWE" IS A VERY SMALL SYSTEM WHICH AS INTENSIFIED DURING LAST HOURS (EYE FEATURE ON MICROWAVE IMAGERY). IT SHOULD TRACK GENERALLY WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS AT LOW SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE TRACKING AGAIN MORE SOUTHWESTWARDS AT DAY 3. "BONGWE" COULD REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT SHOULD NOT STRENGHEN FURTHER MORE DUE TO LIMITED SST AND STRONGER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR