Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 17/3/20072008 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONGWE) 2.A POSITION 2007/11/22 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.0S / 69.8E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/4.0 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 070 SE: 170 SO: 170 NO: 070 50 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/11/23 00 UTC: 14.1S/68.8E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/11/23 12 UTC: 14.2S/67.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/11/24 00 UTC: 14.5S/66.4E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/11/24 12 UTC: 14.9S/64.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2007/11/25 00 UTC: 15.3S/63.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2007/11/25 12 UTC: 15.7S/62.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.0 AND CI=4.0- "BONGWE" HAS NEARLLY STALLED SINCE THAT NIGHT, STUCKED BETWEEN STEERING FLUX FROM THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO HIS NORTH-EAST AND THE ONE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO HIS SOUTH-WEST. COOLER SST INDUCE BY THE STALLING POSITION AND PROXIMITY OF A PERSISTENT AREA OF DRY AIR COULD BE RESPONSIBLE OF THE DETERIORATION OF THE CLOUDS CONFIGURATION THIS AFTERNOON (CONFIRMED WITH THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY OF NOAA18 AT 0856Z) ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL STRONGLY DETERIORATE AT DAY 1 WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL CUT OFF LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP SOUTH-WEST OF "BONGWE". SO, INTENSITY SHOULD NOT REACHED TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HEURES AND STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST. "BONGWE" SHOULD SOON TRACK SLOWLY WESTWARDS. AT H+36, A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TURN MORE SOUTHWESTWARDS.