Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 19/3/20072008 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONGWE) 2.A POSITION 2007/11/23 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.8S / 69.3E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /W 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 988 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 070 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/11/23 12 UTC: 13.9S/67.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/11/24 00 UTC: 13.8S/66.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/11/24 12 UTC: 13.8S/64.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2007/11/25 00 UTC: 14.0S/63.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2007/11/25 12 UTC: 14.3S/61.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2007/11/26 00 UTC: 15.1S/60.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.0 AND CI=3.0+ "BONGWE" HAS NEARLY STALLED MORE THAN 18 HOURS AGO, STUCKED BETWEEN STEERING FLUX FROM THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH-EAST AND THE ONE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH-WEST. COOLER SST INDUCE BY THE STALLING POSITION AND PROXIMITY OF A PERSISTENT AREA OF DRY AIR COULD BE RESPONSIBLE OF THE DETERIORATION OF THE CLOUDS CONFIGURATION THIS AFTERNOON. LAST MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOW A BEGINNING NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND A LLCC ON THE BORDER OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY (AQUA 2057UTC AND TRMM 1541UTC). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL STRONGLY DETERIORATE AT DAY 1 WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY WESTWARDS. BEYOND 2 DAYS, A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TURN MORE SOUTHWESTWARDS. INTENSITY SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY WEAKENING UNDERGOING UNFAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.