Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 20/3/20072008 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONGWE) 2.A POSITION 2007/11/23 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.7S / 68.8E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/3.0 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 991 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 070 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/11/23 18 UTC: 13.6S/67.4E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/11/24 06 UTC: 13.5S/65.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2007/11/24 18 UTC: 13.8S/64.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2007/11/25 06 UTC: 14.2S/62.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING. 60H: 2007/11/25 18 UTC: 15.0S/61.2E DISSIPATING. 72H: 2007/11/26 06 UTC: 15.8S/59.8E DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5 AND CI=3.0 "BONGWE" HAS RE-STARTED TO TRACK WESTNORTHWESTAWARDS. THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES AN INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (FRONT OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH), AND THE LLCC IS NOW TOTALLY EXPOSED. IT SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE RESIDUAL VORTEX SHOULD CURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS BEYOND THE 25 DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.