Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 21/3/20072008 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONGWE) 2.A POSITION 2007/11/23 AT 1200 UTC : 13.1S / 68.0E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 050 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/11/24 00 UTC: 12.8S/66.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2007/11/24 12 UTC: 13.0S/65.5E, MAX WIND=027KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2007/11/25 00 UTC: 13.6S/64.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2007/11/25 12 UTC: 14.5S/62.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2007/11/26 00 UTC: 15.7S/60.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP. 72H: 2007/11/26 12 UTC: 16.9S/58.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+ AND CI=2.05+. "BONGWE" KEEPS ON WEAKENING AND THIS TREND APPEARS IRREVERSIBLE SINCE THE SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING A MODERATE BUT PERSISTENT WESTNORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. THE INDUCED VENTILATION HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO DISMANTLE THE CONVECTION WHICH HAS ALMOST VANISHED ALTOGETHER COMPLETELY UNVEILING THE EXPOSED VORTEX OF LOW CLOUDS. THE RESIDUAL LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY FILL UP AS TIME PASSES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BONGWE HAS MAINTAINED ITS CURRENT WESTNORTHWESTWARD MOTION BUT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESSIVELY CURVE WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS BEYOND 24H AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE GRADUALLY WEAKENS TO THE SOUTH.