Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 23/3/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 3 (EX-BONGWE) 2.A POSITION 2007/11/24 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.0S / 66.7E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.0 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/11/24 12 UTC: 13.1S/65.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2007/11/25 00 UTC: 13.6S/63.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2007/11/25 12 UTC: 14.5S/62.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP. 48H: 2007/11/26 00 UTC: 15.4S/60.5E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP. 60H: 2007/11/26 12 UTC: 16.5S/58.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP. 72H: 2007/11/27 00 UTC: 17.0S/56.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=1.5 AND CI=2.0 AN ASCAT PASS AT 1641Z SHOWS ONLY AN AREA OF 25/27 KT AT MORE THAN 60 NM SOUTH OF THE LLCC. CONSIDERING THAT THIS DATA ARE QUITE OLD, INTENSITY IS LOWERED AT 25 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. "BONGWE" KEEPS ON WEAKENING AND IS ENTERRING IN AN AREA OF INCREASING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR .... THIS ADVISORY IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE RESIDUAL LOW WILL GRADUALLY FILL UP AS TIME PASSES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND MOTION IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESSIVELY CURVE WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE GRADUALLY WEAKENS TO THE SOUTH. A TEMPORARY RECURVATURE TO THE WEST-SOUTH-WEST IS POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A WEAK RIDGE CIRCULATE RAPIDLY SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.