Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 24/3/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 3 (EX-BONGWE) 2.A POSITION 2007/11/24 AT 0600 UTC : 12.7S / 66.2E (TWELVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /W 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/11/24 18 UTC: 12.7S/64.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2007/11/25 06 UTC: 13.3S/63.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP. 36H: 2007/11/25 18 UTC: 14.1S/61.5E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP. 48H: 2007/11/26 06 UTC: 15.0S/59.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP. 60H: 2007/11/26 18 UTC: 15.7S/58.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP. 72H: 2007/11/27 06 UTC: 16.0S/56.1E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0 THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL WELL DEFINED AND TOTALLY EXPOSED, SHOWING THE CENTER NORTH OF MOST ACTIVE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE BUILDING CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IL HIGH LEVEL NORTH OF THE SYSTEM, SHOULD MAKE TURN THE ACTUAL WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR TO EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR RE-INTESIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH SHOULD CURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES, AND SLOWLY FILL UP. A TEMPORARY RECURVATURE TO THE WEST-SOUTH-WEST IS POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A WEAK RIDGE CIRCULATE RAPIDLY SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. DESPITE ITS WEAKENING, THE RESIDUAL CIRCULATION IS ASSOCIATED TO WARM, HUMID AND INSTABLE TROPICAL AIR, WICH SHOULD GENERATES BAD WEATHER OVER THE MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS ON MONDAY EVENNING AND AFTER. STRONGER WINDS ARE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI CIRCLE DUE TO GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.