Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

*************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 25/3/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 3 (EX-BONGWE) 2.A POSITION 2007/11/24 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.9S / 65.5E (TWELVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/11/25 00 UTC: 12.9S/64.1E, MAX WIND=025KT , FILLING UP. 24H: 2007/11/25 12 UTC: 13.2S/62.3E, MAX WIND=020KT , FILLING UP. 36H: 2007/11/26 00 UTC: 13.8S/60.6E, MAX WIND=020KT , FILLING UP. 48H: 2007/11/26 12 UTC: 14.2S/58.7E, MAX WIND=020KT , FILLING UP. 60H: 2007/11/27 00 UTC: 14.5S/56.9E, MAX WIND=020KT , FILLING UP. 72H: 2007/11/27 12 UTC: 15.0S/54.8E, MAX WIND=020KT , FILLING UP. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: CORRECTION OF THE LOCATION OF THE LLCC. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL WELL DEFINED AND TOTALLY EXPOSED, SHOWING THE CENTER NORTH OF RESIDUAL BURSTING DEEP CONVECTION. ACCORDING TO LAST AVAILABLE NWP MODELS, THE TRACK SHOULD CURVE MORE WESTSOUHWESTWARDS THAN SOUTHWESTWARDS, AS IT WAS FORECASTED IN THE PREVIOUS RUNS, AND THE RESIDUAL VORTEX SHOULD KEEP ON FILLING UP NORTH OF THE 16TH PARALLEL SOUTH, GENERATING TEMPORARY CONVECTIVE BURSTS FROM THE LLCC. CONDITIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION : VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS STRONG (WESTNORTHWESTERLY FOR THE MOMENT, TEMPORARILY WEAK ON MONDAY, TURNING EASTNORTHEASTERLY ON TUESDAY), WITH POOR UPPERLEVEL DIVERGENCE DUE TO CYCLONIC HIGH LEVEL CIRCULATION ON AND AFTER MONDAY; RATHER DRY ENVIRONMENT, SST BETWEEN 26 AND 27°C, AND POOR LOW LEVEL INFLOWS (POOR MONSOON EQUATORWARDS INFLOW, AND WEAKENING TRADE WINDS FLOW). THIS RESIDUAL VORTEX IS NEVERTHELESS ASSOCIATED TO HUMID, WARM AND INSTABLE AIR, WICH COULD EVENTUALLY GENERATE BAD WEATHER NORTH OF MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS ON AND AFTER TUESDAY (DEPENDING ON THE FINAL TRACK). STRONGEST WINDS ARE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI CIRCLE DUE TO GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ISSUED ABOUT THIS SYSTEM UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION.