Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/4/20072008 1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 4 (0420072008) 2.A POSITION 2007/12/12 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.3S / 70.6E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/12/13 00 UTC: 13.7S/70.0E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2007/12/13 12 UTC: 13.9S/69.7E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2007/12/14 00 UTC: 14.2S/69.2E, MAX WIND=035KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/12/14 12 UTC: 14.5S/68.7E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/12/15 00 UTC: 15.1S/67.8E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/12/15 12 UTC: 15.8S/66.8E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE CHAGOS HAS IMPROVED ON ORGANIZATION TODAY BASED ON PRESENTATION ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. REGULAR ADVISORY WILL NOW BE ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTICE THAT PRESENT POSITION AND MOTION HAD HIGH INCERTITUDE, AS THE CENTER IS STILL VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCALIZE ON THIS EARLY STAGE OF DEVELOPMENT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITION IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE. EQUATORWARD CONVERGENCE IS GOOD BUT IS WEAKER ON THE TRADEWIND SIDE. A MID-LAT TROUGH THAT SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS SHOULD MAINTAIN LOW CONVERGENCE ON THIS SIDE. THE SYSTEM IS UNDER MODERATE EASTERLY WINDSHEAR (SOUTH OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS NORTH OF 10S). AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARDS, SHEAR SHOULD LESSEN. POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS WELL MARQUED (SEEN WITH THE CIRRUS EXPANSION) ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHWESTWARD SUBTROPICAL JET. PRESENT GUIDANCE CALLS FOR SOME SLOW INTENSIFICATION.