Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/4/20072008 1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 4 (0420072008) 2.A POSITION 2007/12/12 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.5S / 70.0E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/12/13 06 UTC: 13.7S/69.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2007/12/13 18 UTC: 14.0S/69.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2007/12/14 06 UTC: 14.3S/68.6E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/12/14 18 UTC: 14.8S/67.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/12/15 06 UTC: 15.4S/67.0E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/12/15 18 UTC: 15.9S/66.1E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE LLCC IS STILL BADLY DEFINED AT THIS EARLY STAGE OF DEVELOPMENT. SO THE PRESENT POSITION AND MOTION ARE UNCERTAIN. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITION IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE. EQUATORWARD CONVERGENCE IS GOOD BUT IS WEAKER ON THE TRADEWIND SIDE. A MID-LAT TROUGH THAT SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS SHOULD MAINTAIN POOR INFLOW ON THIS SIDE. THE SYSTEM IS UNDER MODERATE EASTERLY WINDSHEAR (SOUTH OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS NORTH OF 10S), WHAT EXPLAINS THE LOCATION OF THE LLCC ESTIMATED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CLUSTER. POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS WELL DEFINED (SEE THE CIRRUS EXPANSION) ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHWESTWARD SUBTROPICAL JET. NWP MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT, SOME MAKING IT TRACL GLOBALLY SOUTHWESTWARDS WILL OTHER KEEP IT ALMOSTSTATIONNARY. PRESENT GUIDANCE CALLS FOR SOME SLOW INTENSIFICATION.