Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/4/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 4 (0420072008) 2.A POSITION 2007/12/13 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.9S / 69.7E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/12/14 06 UTC: 14.0S/69.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2007/12/14 18 UTC: 14.2S/69.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2007/12/15 06 UTC: 14.5S/68.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2007/12/15 18 UTC: 15.0S/67.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2007/12/16 06 UTC: 15.7S/65.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/12/16 18 UTC: 16.4S/64.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=2.0 BASED ON LAST IR IMAGERY, CENTER REMAINS EXPOSED NORTH-EAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTION. POSITION, BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, IS QUITE UNCERTAIN. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IS STILL MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR (THAT MAY HAVE BEGUN TO LESSEN AS SUGGEST LATEST DATA OF WINDSHEAR FROM THE CIMSS) AND A DEFICIENT CONVERGENCE ON THE TRADEWIND SIDE. BASICALLY, PHILOSOPHY ON THE GUIDANCE FOR THE TRACKS AND INTENSITY HAVE NOT CHANGED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY EXCEPT A LITTLE ADJUSTMENT OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE TO THE LEFT FOR A BETTER AGREEMENT TO THE ECMWF / EPS SOLUTION. THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN STATIONNARY WITHIN THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS, BEFORE MOVING AT A LITTLE FASTER SPEED TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST.