Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/4/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 4 (0420072008) 2.A POSITION 2007/12/14 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.0S / 69.6E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/12/14 12 UTC: 14.3S/69.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2007/12/15 00 UTC: 14.6S/68.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2007/12/15 12 UTC: 15.1S/67.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2007/12/16 00 UTC: 15.7S/66.5E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/12/16 12 UTC: 16.5S/65.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/12/17 00 UTC: 17.2S/63.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=2.0 INCERTITUDE IN POSITION IS STILL HIGH. IT IS MAINLY BASED ON CONTINUITY BUT MAY NEED TO BE RELOCALIZE LATER THIS MORNING WITH VIS IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM REMAINS CAUGHT BETWEEN OPPOSITE STEERING FLUX SOUTH OF THE EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES NORTHWARD AND A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHWARD. ACCORDING TO LAST 12UTC RUN, THIS SITUATION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY ... SO LITTLE MOTION IS AGAIN EXPECTED. AFTER THAT, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESSIVELY "TAKE THE LEAD" ON THE CONTRIBUTION OF THE STEERING FLUX. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A MORE SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACKS AT A LITTLE FASTER SPEED. ECMWF HAVE, FOR THE LEST TWO RUN, TURN HIS TRACK MORE TO THE LEFT AND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UK (EXCEPT FOR THE SPEED WITH ECMWF BEEING THE FASTER ONE). SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS STILL EXPERIENCED BY THE SYSTEM ...AND ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF/ EPS DATA, SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL SATURDAY BEFORE ABATE AT DAY 3. THE PRESENT GUIDANCE FOLLOWS THIS SOLUTION AND KEEPS THE TREND ON A SMALL INTENSIFICATION, BRINGING THE SYSTEM TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS BY SUNDAY.