Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 9/4/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4 (0420072008) 2.A POSITION 2007/12/14 AT 1200 UTC : 14.4S / 69.4E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/12/15 00 UTC: 15.0S/68.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2007/12/15 12 UTC: 15.5S/67.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2007/12/16 00 UTC: 16.0S/66.9E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/12/16 12 UTC: 16.6S/65.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/12/17 00 UTC: 17.4S/63.7E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/12/17 12 UTC: 18.3S/62.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=2.5- THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS TOTALLY EXPOSED, VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. IT UNDERGOES A NORTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT WHICH EJECTS ACTIVE DEEP CONVECTION WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS. THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION HAS BEN TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTARDS DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. CONDITIONS ARE POORLY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION, DUE TO VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, POOR LOWLEVEL TRADEWINDS INFLOW (TROUGH TO THE SOUTH), WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD ACCELERATE SOUTHWESTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MIDLEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. IT SHOULD THEN INTENSIFY LIGHTLY (BETTER LOW LEVEL INFLOW, TEMPORARY WEAKENING OF THE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR), WHITOUT REACHING SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE.