Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/4/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4 (0420072008) 2.A POSITION 2007/12/15 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.1S / 68.0E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S 0.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 130 SE: 370 SO: 280 NO: 150 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/12/15 18 UTC: 15.7S/66.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2007/12/16 06 UTC: 16.3S/65.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2007/12/16 18 UTC: 16.9S/64.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/12/17 06 UTC: 17.6S/62.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/12/17 18 UTC: 18.4S/61.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/12/18 06 UTC: 19.3S/60.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5- THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION REMAINS PARTIALLY EXPOSED IN THE NORTHEAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO THE PERSISTING RATHER STRONG NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. CONDITIONS REMAIN POORLY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION, DUE TO THE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND POOR LOW LEVEL POLEWARDS INFLOW (AS A TROUGH IS SHIFTING IN THE SOUTH). THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES IN THE SOUTHWEST. IT SHOULD THEN SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY (BETTER LOW LEVEL INFLOW, TEMPORARY WEAKENING OF THE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR), WHITOUT REACHING SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE. WINDS EXTENSION IS MEASURED THANKS TO 0155 UTC QUIKSCAT SWATH.