Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 15/4/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4 (0420072008) 2.A POSITION 2007/12/16 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.3S / 66.3E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 090 SE: 150 SO: 180 NO: 090 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/12/16 12 UTC: 17.2S/64.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2007/12/17 00 UTC: 18.1S/63.2E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/12/17 12 UTC: 19.2S/61.5E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/12/18 00 UTC: 20.0S/60.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2007/12/18 12 UTC: 20.5S/59.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP. 72H: 2007/12/19 00 UTC: 20.9S/57.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5- DURING THE LAST 36 HOURS, NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR HAS BEEN TOO IMPORTANT (ESTIMATED AT 15/20KT ACCORDIN,G TO CIMSS DATA), AND THE REPETITIVE BURTS OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LLCC ARE SYSTEMATICALLY SWEPT SOUTHWESTWARDS. THE LLCC IS ACTUALLY PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND ITS LOCATION IS LESS PRECISE THAN IN THE PREVIOUS WANRNINGS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BE TEMPORARILY LESS UNFAVORABLE FOR A LIGHT INTENSIFICATION (BETTER LOW LEVEL TRADE WINDS INFLOW AFTER THE EVAUATION OF THE FRONT, TEMPORARY WEAKENING OF THE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR). NEVERTHELESS, THIS SYSTEM SHOHLD NOT REACH MORE THAN THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN AFTER AS IS APPROACHES MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS (SST OF LESS THAN 26.5 CELSIUS DEGRES SOUTH OF 19 SOUTH, RE-INTENSIFICATION OF THE WINDSHEAR). WINDS EXTENSION AND INTENSITY ARE ESTIMATED ACCORDING TO 1300 UTC QUIKSCAT SWATH, WHICH ARE QUITE RELIABLE FOR THIS RATHER WEAK, EXPOSED AND WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION.