Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 16/4/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4 (0420072008) 2.A POSITION 2007/12/16 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4S / 65.4E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 090 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 090 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/12/16 18 UTC: 17.3S/63.6E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/12/17 06 UTC: 18.4S/62.2E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/12/17 18 UTC: 19.5S/60.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2007/12/18 06 UTC: 19.8S/59.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2007/12/18 18 UTC: 19.9S/57.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2007/12/19 06 UTC: 19.9S/56.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5 OVERALL CONFIGURATION HAS SLIGHTY IMPROVED BUT THE LLCC IS STILL ON THE EDGE OF THE MAIN DEEP CONVECTION. A QUICKSCAT PASS OF 01:29Z SHOWS MAX UNCONTAMINED WIND OF 30 KT. AS THE CENTER IS NOT REALLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION AT THIS TIME, INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE SYSTEM HAS ALMOST TRACKED WESTWARD DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS AS THE SUBTROPICAL TEMPORALLY REBUILT SOUTHWARD. FORECAST POSITION HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ON THE RIGHT AND FOLLOW THE NEW CONSENSUS OF NWP MODELS INTERPOLATED AT 00Z FIX. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BE TEMPORARILY LESS UNFAVORABLE FOR A LIGHT INTENSIFICATION (BETTER LOW LEVEL TRADE WINDS INFLOW, TEMPORARY WEAKENING OF THE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR). NEVERTHELESS, THIS SYSTEM SHOHLD NOT REACH MORE THAN THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE AND SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER THAT AS IT APPROACHES MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS (SST OF LESS THAN 26.5 CELSIUS DEGRES SOUTH OF 19 SOUTH, RE-INTENSIFICATION OF THE WINDSHEAR, DRY ENVIRONMENT). WINDS EXTENSION ARE ESTIMATED ACCORDING TO 0126 UTC QUIKSCAT SWATH.