Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 23/4/20072008 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (CELINA) 2.A POSITION 2007/12/18 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.6S / 60.1E (TWENTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 994 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 050 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/12/18 12 UTC: 21.4S/58.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2007/12/19 00 UTC: 21.7S/57.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2007/12/19 12 UTC: 21.7S/55.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2007/12/20 00 UTC: 21.5S/54.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2007/12/20 12 UTC: 21.3S/53.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2007/12/21 00 UTC: 20.8S/52.2E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0- AND CI=2.5+ OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS SLOW DOWN ON HIS SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK. CENTER IS NOW DIFFICULT TO LOCALIZE WITH IR IMAGERY. PRESENT POSITION ARE MAINLY BASED ON PERSISTENCE ... AND MAY NEED TO BE RELOCALIZE WITH VIS IMAGERY. DEEP CONVECTION HAS VANISHED NEAR THE LLCC OVER THE LAST HOURS AND INTENSITY SEEMS DEFINITIVELY BE ON A WEAKENING TREND. IT IS SET AT MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STATUS, BUT 'CELINA' COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY. NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR ARE GETTING STRONGER AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN HIGH OVER THE PERIOD, SO NO CHANGE ARE MADE ON THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. 00Z DYNAMICAL MODELS MAINTAIN A WELL CLUSTERED ENSEMBLE OF SOLUTION WITH A GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK UNTIL 18/12Z AND THEN A TURN TOWARD THE WEST FOLLOWED BY A WESTNORTHWESTWARDS MOTION 24 HOURS LATER AS RIDGE BUILTS BACK IN THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. SO THE TRACK GUIDANCE PHILOSOPHY WILL BE GLOBALLY THE SAME AS PREVIOUSLY JUST A LITTLE BIT ON THE RIGHT TO BE CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS AND WITH JUST A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORECAST SPEED. THIS BRINGS THE RESIDUAL CENTER OF 'CELINA' IN THE VINCINITY OF REUNION ISLAND IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.