Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 24/4/20072008 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (CELINA) 2.A POSITION 2007/12/18 AT 0600 UTC : 21.0S / 59.8E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 994 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 050 SE: 160 SO: 160 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/12/18 18 UTC: 21.5S/58.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2007/12/19 06 UTC: 21.8S/57.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2007/12/19 18 UTC: 21.8S/55.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2007/12/20 06 UTC: 21.6S/54.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2007/12/20 18 UTC: 21.2S/53.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2007/12/21 06 UTC: 20.8S/52.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0- AND CI=2.5+ CELINA IS KEEPING ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS AND PRESENTS CLEAR SIGNS OF WEAKENING (LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER VISIBLE, CENTERED NORTHWEST OF DEEP CONVECTION). THE SYSTEM IS NEVERTHELESS STILL CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL STORM DUE TO THE INTENSITY OF THE WINDS BLOWING NEAR THE CENTER, WHICH ARE ESTIMATED ACCORDING TO THE QUIKSCAT SATELLITE DATA OF 0215 Z. 00Z DYNAMICAL MODELS MAINTAIN A WELL CLUSTERED ENSEMBLE OF SOLUTION. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CURVE WESTWARDS THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS DUE TO THE REBUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES, AND COME CLOSER TO REUNION ISLAND. SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS BRINGS THE CENTER IN THE VINCINITY OF REUNION ISLAND DURING THE NIVHT OF WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY.