Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 28/4/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4 (EX-CELINA) 2.A POSITION 2007/12/19 AT 0600 UTC : 22.2S / 58.4E (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 040 SE: 060 SO: 060 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/12/19 18 UTC: 22.0S/57.0E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2007/12/20 06 UTC: 21.9S/55.4E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2007/12/20 18 UTC: 21.5S/54.0E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2007/12/21 06 UTC: 21.1S/52.8E, MAX WIND=020KT , FILLING UP. 60H: 2007/12/21 18 UTC: 21.1S/51.5E, MAX WIND=020KT , FILLING UP. 72H: 2007/12/22 06 UTC: 21.0S/50.6E, MAX WIND=020KT , FILLING UP. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0 AND CI=2.5- HIGH PRESURE REBUILT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND MAKE THE RESIDUAL VORTEX CURVE WESTWARDS, THEN NORTHWESTWARDS, TRACKING ROUND REUNION ISLAND TO THE SOUTH. THE NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IMPEDES SUCCESSIVE BURTS OF CONVECTION TO REBUILD ABOVE THE LLCC, AND REJECTS HEAVY RAINFALL SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. AS IT WILL TRACK WESTNORTHWESTWARDS, THE WINDSHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN, BUT DUE TO A POOR UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, DRY ENVIRNOMENT, AND POOR EQUATORWARD LOW LEVEL INFLOW, THE SYSTEM SHOULD NOT RE-INTENSIFY AND SHOULD FILL-UP PROGRESSIVELY.