Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 29/4/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 4 (EX-CELINA) 2.A POSITION 2007/12/19 AT 1200 UTC : 22.3S / 57.8E (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /W 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/12/20 00 UTC: 22.7S/56.5E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2007/12/20 12 UTC: 22.1S/55.1E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2007/12/21 00 UTC: 21.8S/53.5E, MAX WIND=020KT , FILLING UP. 48H: 2007/12/21 12 UTC: 21.8S/52.2E, MAX WIND=020KT , FILLING UP. 60H: 2007/12/22 00 UTC: 22.3S/51.0E, MAX WIND=020KT , FILLING UP. 72H: 2007/12/22 12 UTC: 23.3S/50.4E, MAX WIND=020KT , DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0. HIGH PRESURE REBUILT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND MAKE THE RESIDUAL VORTEX CURVE WESTWARDS, THEN NORTHWESTWARDS, TRACKING ROUND REUNION ISLAND TO THE SOUTH. THE NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IMPEDES SUCCESSIVE BURTS OF CONVECTION TO REBUILD ABOVE THE LLCC, AND REJECTS HEAVY RAINFALL SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. AS IT WILL TRACK WESTNORTHWESTWARDS, THE WINDSHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN, BUT DUE TO A POOR UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, DRY ENVIRNOMENT, AND POOR EQUATORWARD LOW LEVEL INFLOW, THE SYSTEM SHOULD NOT RE-INTENSIFY AND SHOULD FILL-UP PROGRESSIVELY.