Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 30/4/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 4 (EX-CELINA) 2.A POSITION 2007/12/19 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.5S / 57.3E (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/12/20 06 UTC: 22.6S/56.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2007/12/20 18 UTC: 22.3S/54.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2007/12/21 06 UTC: 22.0S/53.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2007/12/21 18 UTC: 22.2S/52.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2007/12/22 06 UTC: 23.0S/51.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2007/12/22 18 UTC: 24.0S/50.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0. HIGH PRESURE REBUILT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND MAKE THE RESIDUAL VORTEX CURVE WESTWARDS, THEN NORTHWESTWARDS, TRACKING ROUND REUNION ISLAND TO THE SOUTH. THE NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS WEAKENING DUE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. SO, THE DEEP CONVECTION COULD TEMPORAROLY RENUID NEAR THE LLCC, BUT THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS TOO POOR FOR A RE-INTENSIFICATION.