Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 31/4/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 4 (EX-CELINA) 2.A POSITION 2007/12/20 AT 0000 UTC : 22.6S / 56.5E (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/12/20 12 UTC: 22.6S/55.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2007/12/21 00 UTC: 22.3S/53.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2007/12/21 12 UTC: 22.2S/52.5E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2007/12/22 00 UTC: 22.8S/51.5E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP. 60H: 2007/12/22 12 UTC: 23.4S/51.1E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP. 72H: 2007/12/23 00 UTC: 24.0S/50.9E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0. THE LLCC IS TOTALLY EXPOSED WITH A POOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HIGH PRESURE REBUILT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SHOULD MAKE THE RESIDUAL VORTEX CURVE WESTNORTHWESTWARDS, BEFORE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS, TURNING AROUND HIGH PRESSURES. THE PRESENCE OF A SMALL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPLAINS THE WEAKENING OF THE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, BUT ALSO A POOR UPPER LEVEL DICERGENCE.