Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 33/4/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 4 (EX-CELINA) 2.A POSITION 2007/12/20 AT 1200 UTC : 21.5S / 54.7E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 0.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/12/21 00 UTC: 21.1S/53.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2007/12/21 12 UTC: 21.3S/51.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2007/12/22 00 UTC: 21.8S/50.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2007/12/22 12 UTC: 22.5S/49.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2007/12/23 00 UTC: 23.1S/48.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2007/12/23 12 UTC: 23.8S/48.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0+. LLCC IS WELL DEFINED AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS REBUILT OVER THE LAST HOURS IN THE VICINITY OF THE CENTRE. AS THE HIGH PRESSURES REBUILD TO THE SOUTHWEST THE SYSTEM HAS CURVED NORTHWESTWARDS, BEFORE TRACKING WESTWARDS THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS, ALONG THE EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. THE PRESENCE OF A SMALL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPLAINS THE WEAKENING OF THE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, BUT ALSO A POOR UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.