Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 34/4/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 4 (EX-CELINA) 2.A POSITION 2007/12/20 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.1S / 54.4E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/12/21 06 UTC: 21.0S/53.7E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2007/12/21 18 UTC: 21.2S/52.1E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2007/12/22 06 UTC: 21.6S/51.1E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2007/12/22 18 UTC: 22.2S/49.9E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2007/12/23 06 UTC: 23.0S/48.8E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2007/12/23 18 UTC: 23.9S/47.7E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0+. LLCC IS WELL DEFINED AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REBUILD PROGRESSIVELY IN THE VICINITY OF THE CENTRE, AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS WEAKENING. AS THE HIGH PRESSURES REBUILD TO THE SOUTHWEST THE SYSTEM HAS CURVED NORTHWESTWARDS, BEFORE TRACKING WESTWARDS THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS, ALONG THE EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.