Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 35/4/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 4 (EX-CELINA) 2.A POSITION 2007/12/21 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.2S / 53.2E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/12/21 12 UTC: 21.3S/51.9E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2007/12/22 00 UTC: 21.8S/50.7E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2007/12/22 12 UTC: 22.6S/49.7E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2007/12/23 00 UTC: 23.4S/48.8E FILLING UP. 60H: 2007/12/23 12 UTC: 24.4S/47.6E FILLING UP. 72H: 2007/12/24 00 UTC: 25.2S/47.1E FILLING UP. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0+. THE TRACK HAS RECURVED WESTWARDS. IT SHOULD TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDSWARDS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS BEYOND IT SHOULD KEEP AN INTENSITY CLOSE TO ITS ACTUAL STAGE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT, THEN FILL UP PROGRESSEVELY UNDER A STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, DUE TO THE GRADIANT WITH THE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH PRESURES.