Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

*************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 36/4/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 4 (EX-CELINA) 2.A POSITION 2007/12/21 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.1S / 52.5E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.0 /W 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/12/21 18 UTC: 21.4S/51.4E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2007/12/22 06 UTC: 22.0S/50.2E, MAX WIND=020KT , FILLING UP. 36H: 2007/12/22 18 UTC: 22.8S/49.3E, MAX WIND=020KT , FILLING UP. 48H: 2007/12/23 06 UTC: 23.7S/48.2E, MAX WIND=020KT , DISSIPATED. 60H: 2007/12/23 18 UTC: FILLING UP. 72H: 2007/12/24 06 UTC: OVERLAND. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T= 1.5 CI=2.0-. THE TRACK HAS RECURVED WESTWARDS LAST NIGHT. IT SHOULD TRACK WESTWARDS THEN WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHWARDS. THIS RESIDUAL SYSTEM SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE SOUTEAST OF MADAGASCAR. SYSTEM SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.