Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 37/4/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 4 (EX-CELINA) 2.A POSITION 2007/12/21 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.8S / 52.0E (TWENTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.0 /W 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/12/22 00 UTC: 21.2S/51.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP. 24H: 2007/12/22 12 UTC: 21.7S/50.2E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP. 36H: 2007/12/23 00 UTC: 22.8S/49.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP. 48H: 2007/12/23 12 UTC: 23.2S/47.9E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T= 1.5 CI=2.0-. THE FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER IS LESS AND LESS DEFINED IT SHOULD TRACK MORE WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD. AS THE RIDGE SHOULD REBUILT SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR BY THE 23/00, THE TRACK SHOULD TURN ON A MORE WESTWARDS COMPONANT AND THE RESIDUAL LOW SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR. CHANCE OF HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE OVER THIS AREA SUNDAY. LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REINTENSIFICATION