Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/5/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 5 2.A POSITION 2007/12/18 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.2S / 84.4E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/12/19 00 UTC: 14.1S/83.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2007/12/19 12 UTC: 14.9S/83.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/12/20 00 UTC: 15.7S/83.5E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/12/20 12 UTC: 17.3S/84.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/12/21 00 UTC: 18.6S/86.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/12/21 12 UTC: 19.9S/87.8E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0+. THIS SYSTEM EXISTS WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE TWO LOWS IDENTIFIED YESTERDAY ARE NOW CLEARLY ISOLATED ONE FROM EACHOTHER, AND THE MORE SOUTH ONE IS DEEPENING, IN PHASIS WITH DEEP CONVECTION WHICH IS RAPIDLY ORGANISING, MAINLY DUE TO GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. IT SHOULD REMAIN ON THE EASTERN PART OF THE BASIN, AND TRACK GLOBALLY SOUTHWARDS AS IT INTENSIFIES, BEFORE WEKENING OVER COOL SST SOUTH OF 18 SOUTH.