Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/5/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 2.A POSITION 2007/12/18 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.8S / 84.5E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 045 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 045 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/12/19 06 UTC: 14.6S/84.3E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/12/19 18 UTC: 15.3S/84.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/12/20 06 UTC: 16.4S/84.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/12/20 18 UTC: 17.5S/85.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/12/21 06 UTC: 18.8S/87.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/12/21 18 UTC: 20.4S/89.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5- THIS SYSTEM EXISTS WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE TWO LOWS IDENTIFIED YESTERDAY ARE NOW CLEARLY ISOLATED ONE FROM EACHOTHER, AND THE MORE SOUTH ONE IS DEEPENING, IN PHASIS WITH DEEP CONVECTION WHICH IS RAPIDLY ORGANISING, MAINLY DUE TO GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. IT SHOULD REMAIN ON THE EASTERN PART OF THE BASIN, AND TRACK GLOBALLY SOUTHWARDS AS IT INTENSIFIES, BEFORE WEKENING OVER COOL SST SOUTH OF 18 SOUTH.