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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20072008
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5

2.A POSITION 2007/12/19 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.1S / 82.1E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 060 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 060

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/12/20 00 UTC: 14.7S/81.6E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
24H: 2007/12/20 12 UTC: 15.5S/81.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2007/12/21 00 UTC: 16.6S/82.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
48H: 2007/12/21 12 UTC: 17.6S/83.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
60H: 2007/12/22 00 UTC: 18.9S/84.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2007/12/22 12 UTC: 20.2S/86.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5
THIS SYSTEM EXISTS WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION, MAINLY DUE TO GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WINDSHEAR.
IT SHOULD REMAIN ON THE EASTERN PART OF THE BASIN, AND TRACK GLOBALLY SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTHEASTWARDS AS IT INTENSIFIES, BEFORE WEKENING OVER COOL SST SOUTH OF 18 SOUTH.