Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/5/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 2.A POSITION 2007/12/19 AT 1800 UTC : 14.5S / 82.0E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 996 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/12/20 06 UTC: 15.4S/81.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/12/20 18 UTC: 16.5S/82.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/12/21 06 UTC: 17.7S/83.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/12/21 18 UTC: 19.0S/84.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2007/12/22 06 UTC: 20.3S/86.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2007/12/22 18 UTC: 21.5S/88.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5 LOCATION OF THE LLCC IS ESTIMATED ACCORDING TO SSMI MICRO-WAVE IMAGERY AT 1318Z, WHICH SHOWS A MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTIVAL WINDSHEAR. IT SHOULD REMAIN ON THE EASTERN PART OF THE BASIN, AND TRACK GLOBALLY SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTHEASTWARDS AS IT INTENSIFIES, BEFORE WEKENING OVER COOL SST SOUTH OF 18 SOUTH.