Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/5/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 2.A POSITION 2007/12/20 AT 0000 UTC : 15.4S / 81.9E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 996 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/12/20 12 UTC: 16.8S/82.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2007/12/21 00 UTC: 18.2S/83.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2007/12/21 12 UTC: 19.5S/84.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2007/12/22 00 UTC: 20.6S/86.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2007/12/22 12 UTC: 21.2S/86.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2007/12/23 00 UTC: 22.0S/87.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: LOCATION OF THE LLCC IS ESTIMATED ACCORDING TO AMSU MICRO-WAVE IMAGERY AT 2028Z, WHICH STILL SHOWS A MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTIVAL WINDSHEAR. TO BE EXACT, THE SYSTEM HAS TEMPORARILY REACHED THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY LAST NIGHT (SEE WINDSAT IMAGERY AT 0031Z, WHERE WE CAN ESTIMATE T=CI=3.0-), BUT MANILY DUE TO ITS PERSISTANT VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, IT HAS RAPIDLY WEAKENED TO OTS ACTUAL STAGE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION. IT SHOULD REMAIN ON THE EASTERN PART OF THE BASIN, AND TRACK GLOBALLY SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTHEASTWARDS, BEFORE BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL OVER COOL SST, OF LESS OF 26 CELSIUS DEGRES SOUTH OF 20 SOUTH.