Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/5/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 2.A POSITION 2007/12/20 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.0S / 82.8E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S 0.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 996 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/12/20 18 UTC: 17.0S/84.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2007/12/21 06 UTC: 18.0S/85.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2007/12/21 18 UTC: 19.0S/87.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2007/12/22 06 UTC: 20.0S/88.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2007/12/22 18 UTC: 20.7S/89.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2007/12/23 06 UTC: 21.7S/88.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS OVER THE LAST HOURS, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORAL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM SHOULD GENERALLY TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES UNDER THE COMBINED STEERING INFLUENCES OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND AN APPROACHING SOUTH WEST MID LATITUDE TROUGH. THE WINDSHEAR HAS MOMENTALY DECREASED IN THE SYSTEM ENVIRONMENT. BUT THE FORECAST TRACK (AT 24/36 HOURS) LEADS THE SYSTEM WITHIN AN UNFAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH INCREASING WINDSHEAR AND COOLER SSTS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN START TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.